One of the interesting things I have found on youtube is the music videos that fans make for their favourite musicians. For example, Sufjan Stevens is a popular artist nowdays, but his earlier works came out with no music videos for them. In this case, fans of the musician have put time and effort into making their own music video versions. And these are surprising well done. Have a look and judge for yourself.
I came across an example of Poe’s Law in practice today. as described on RationalWiki:
Poe’s Law relates to fundamentalism, and the difficulty of identifying actual parodies thereof. It suggests that, in general, it is hard to tell fake fundamentalism from the real thing, since they may both espouse equally extreme beliefs. Poe’s law also works in reverse: real fundamentalism can also be indistinguishable from parody fundamentalism.
So moms are everywhere in nature. Females often go to great lengths to feed, save, and protect their young. Many construct homes and shelters…(all without knowing/understanding she’s even pregnant) and do so with great care and attention to detail.
So I’ve got two questions about this:
1) What is the evolutionary advantage of mothers doing everything they can to feed/protect their young? And remember, mothers often give food to their young that they might otherwise eat. And going out into the world to look for food is often dangerous — she could be killed looking for food. Wouldn’t there be an advantage to her personally just to forget about the kid and go about her own business of eating and finding a mate? Why the unnecessary risk? Why go to the trouble of building a nest to protect the young? Wouldn’t it be easier just to skip all that? I thought evolution was all about being selfish……….so why do so many animals put others’ needs before themselves? What’s the advantage to that?
2) Why wouldn’t it be an evolutionary advantage for mothers to eat their young? I know it sometimes happens in nature…..but not as a general rule. As a general rule, mothers and fathers very rarely eat their young…even when they’re hungry. But wouldn’t an animal be more likely to breed if it didn’t starve? Mothers should be consuming their offspring everywhere in nature — afterall, it would advantageous getting that extra nourishment.
How do the evolutionists here get around this? Where does this “love” or devotion for child come from? Got a gene you can show me? What’s the evolutionary advantage for all this? And remember — evolution cannot plan ahead.
Now the answer is fairly obvious just through think about how natural selection works, the mothers who look after her child will be more likely to have their children survive, and thus will more likely pass on their genes. That is why it is called natural selection. As PZ says “Wouldn’t an animal be more likely to breed if it ate its own babies?”.
But the interesting thing is that this is a great example of Poe’s Law. For there were a number of responses to the post. Including:
Ur…survival of life….?
Oh wait—you just posted this to get a rise out of scarlets! He thinks you’re serious!!
BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
Well done, sporty!!!11!!1!11!
You can’t know if the post is true or a parody of the truth, hence poe’s law!
In a recent article in the Spectator, journalist Melanie Phillips criticizes Richard Dawkins for sloppy quoting during a discussion on the case for deistic god.
In essence the article argues that there had been a bit of a gotcha moment when Dawkins, in a debate with John Lennox, had said: “…you can make a respectable case for deism – not a case that I would accept but I think it is a serious discussion that you could have.” Dawkins then subsequently claimed that he had been misquoted by Lennox later on when Lennox only quoted the first part and not the following qualification.
Melanie Phillips then accuses Dawkins of misquoting her, of using text from a website that discussed her, rather than her actual quote, and that by doing so he does not acknowledge that she had acknowledged the second part of his point about deism as well as the first. This appears to be the substance of her argument in the article. It should be noted that the thrust of the text Dawkins quoted and Phillips own argument are pretty much the same.
Now, as described it does look like an error on Dawkins part, I am not sure it warrants a whole article. But some people have got hot under the collar about it, including the author who Dawkins actually quoted:
Indeed, we are left with only two possible explanations for all this. He is either incompetent as a writer and researcher, or he has deliberately set out to misinform and deceive his audience. Either option is not very pretty. Considering that this guy actually calls himself a “Bright”, he does not seem so bright after all. He is either quite a dolt who cannot even do the most basic of quotations and referencing, or he has deliberately and maliciously made these gross misrepresentations and distortions in order to promote himself while he seeks to demonise Phillips.
In the end it was an error and Dawkins apologised in this post:
In my Atlanta talk, I briefly quoted the journalist Melanie Phillips, as a possible source of John Lennox’s ’stunning revelation’. Unfortunately, I also attributed another, similar quotation to her, which was in fact from another blogger who had referred to her. This was inexplicably slipshod on my part. I apologise, and have asked Josh to remove the brief section of my talk where I spoke about Melanie Phillips. Richard
Of course Melanie Phillips is not quite, well, I would say accurate, in her article. For a start she states that:
In a lecture earlier this month to the American Atheists’ Convention in Atlanta, Georgia, Dawkins chose to attack Lennox …describing Lennox belittlingly as a ‘Christian apologist’ and an ‘Irish mathematician’
It is not quite clear why these are belittling comments. He is a Christian apologist, and this is not a term of derision, this is the term Christians use themselves. See for example the Christian Apologetics and Research Ministry.
As for being called an Irish Mathematician, well I guess it could be a racial slur, but I suspect, given that he is, in fact, Irish and a mathematician, that is just a description of him.
And to some extent Phillips put words in the mouth of Dawkins, for example saying:
…given his previous absolutism in stating that anything unsupported by evidence is superstitious mumbo-jumbo and that anyone who believes that matter must have had an original creator is a cretin…
Now I know from Reading him that Richard Dawkins does not have great respect for religious belief, but I don’t think he has described all religious people as cretins.
She also subtly changes Dawkins argument. So while Dawkins is quoted as saying “…you can make a respectable case for deism”, a few paragraphs down it is changed to “a respectable scientific case could be made for deism”. This is a completely different proposition, and one I am sure Richard Dawkins would disavow.
And this gets to the the actual core of the issue, one that the article dances around - there can be made a respectable case for deism. I saying this I mean deism of the most general kind, that behind everything thing there might be some god, or creator, or mystical force (which is a quite different proposition that any earthly religion puts forward, which is for a much more involved deity).
I have no problem with that proposition, that accepting all the scientific evidence for the big bang, for evolution, for the universe as we understand it, behind it might be some, well supernatural force. It is not an argument I would make or would accept, but I can see how a reasonable argument for it might be made, as there really are mysteries as to why the big bang occurred.
Of course this is of no use to any christian or creationist argument, since that is not the case that any of them put forward. There proposition is for theism, for a much more invovled supreme being.
But it is an interesting proposition, and one worth discussing, and while I think Melanie Phillips has the right to defend her position, I don’t think the article moved the debate forward.
It has not be pleasant writing this, these kind of nit-picking arguments are not really enjoyable. Despite that I definitely support Richard Dawkins, his forthright approach is needed. Atheism has often been a silent voice drowned out by religious views and I appreciate that there are individuals out there taking the debate into the public sphere.
This is certainly necessarily when you have individuals, such as Cormac Murphy-O’Connor claiming atheists are “not quite human”.
Western air strikes sparked fresh controversy in Afghanistan on Wednesday as NATO said a bombing killed eight civilians and the US military estimated that up to 30 villagers died in an attack this month.
NATO soldiers on patrol in the southern province of Helmand on Tuesday came under attack from about 25 insurgents, the alliance’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said.
“Finding it difficult to extract themselves from this dangerous situation, ISAF troops resorted to calling for close air support,” it said. A plane dropped a bomb. “Tragically, it is believed that eight civilians were killed as a result of the air strike,” it said.
ISAF accused the attackers of sheltering among the civilian population.
The soldiers “were not aware that the insurgents were once again using civilians as human shields,” the statement said. “If this information had been known by ISAF troops, no ordnance would have been used.”
The ongoing war in Afghanistan has been in progress for many years nows and it is not clear when it will end, partially because it is not clear what the end goals is. The initial invasion was to overthrow the Taliban Government which was providing refuge for Al-Qaida. Since then there doesn’t appear to be clarity over the aims of the war. Is it to ensure Afghanistan women can attend schools? To create a functioning liberal democracy in Afghanistan? To eradicate poppy growing?
It is sometimes difficult to evaluate actions in Afghanistan because all the battles seem to be against the ‘Taliban’, yet one gets the sense that the term Taliban is used to describe any forces fighting western troops, even when they are simply Pashtun fighters opposing forces invading their homeland.
The border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are home to millions of ethnic Pashtun who have traditional fought any foreign forces invading their homeland, whether they be British, Soviet or US forces. What is the war aim regarding the Pashtun tribes? Can they be subdued by force? If the desire is to bring them around to a more pro-western, or at least neutral position, then using force seems to be the wrong way of going about it.
It is this lack of clarity that makes assessing the war in Afghanistan so difficult. However, Graham Fuller, a former CIA chief in Kabul has written evaluated the situation with admirable clarity in an article for the Huffington Post. His main points are:
– Military force will not win the day in either Afghanistan or Pakistan; crises have only grown worse under the U.S. military footprint.
– The Taliban represent zealous and largely ignorant mountain Islamists. They are also all ethnic Pashtuns. Most Pashtuns see the Taliban — like them or not — as the primary vehicle for restoration of Pashtun power in Afghanistan, lost in 2001. Pashtuns are also among the most fiercely nationalist, tribalized and xenophobic peoples of the world, united only against the foreign invader. In the end, the Taliban are probably more Pashtun than they are Islamist.
– It is a fantasy to think of ever sealing the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The “Durand Line” is an arbitrary imperial line drawn through Pashtun tribes on both sides of the border. And there are twice as many Pashtuns in Pakistan as there are in Afghanistan. The struggle of 13 million Afghan Pashtuns has already inflamed Pakistan’s 28 million Pashtuns.
– India is the primary geopolitical threat to Pakistan, not Afghanistan. Pakistan must therefore always maintain Afghanistan as a friendly state. India furthermore is intent upon gaining a serious foothold in Afghanistan — in the intelligence, economic and political arenas — that chills Islamabad.
– Pakistan will therefore never rupture ties or abandon the Pashtuns, in either country, whether radical Islamist or not. Pakistan can never afford to have Pashtuns hostile to Islamabad in control of Kabul, or at home.
– Occupation everywhere creates hatred, as the U.S. is learning. Yet Pashtuns remarkably have not been part of the jihadi movement at the international level, although many are indeed quick to ally themselves at home with al-Qaida against the U.S. military.
– The U.S. had every reason to strike back at the al-Qaida presence in Afghanistan after the outrage of 9/11. The Taliban were furthermore poster children for an incompetent and harsh regime. But the Taliban retreated from, rather than lost, the war in 2001, in order to fight another day. Indeed, one can debate whether it might have been possible — with sustained pressure from Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and almost all other Muslim countries that viewed the Taliban as primitives — to force the Taliban to yield up al-Qaida over time without war. That debate is in any case now moot. But the consequences of that war are baleful, debilitating and still spreading.
– The situation in Pakistan has gone from bad to worse as a direct consequence of the U.S. war raging on the Afghan border. U.S. policy has now carried the Afghan war over the border into Pakistan with its incursions, drone bombings and assassinations — the classic response to a failure to deal with insurgency in one country. Remember the invasion of Cambodia to save Vietnam?
– The deeply entrenched Islamic and tribal character of Pashtun rule in the Northwest Frontier Province in Pakistan will not be transformed by invasion or war. The task requires probably several generations to start to change the deeply embedded social and psychological character of the area. War induces visceral and atavistic response.
– Pakistan is indeed now beginning to crack under the relentless pressure directly exerted by the U.S. Anti-American impulses in Pakistan are at high pitch, strengthening Islamic radicalism and forcing reluctant acquiescence to it even by non-Islamists.
From this it is not clear that there is an easy way forward with Afghanistan. All these aspects of the situation mean that it may not be possible to impose a liberal democracy in Afghanistan.
However the one tool the US does have is a powerful military, and they are using that in Afghanistan. But that does not mean it is the right tool. The way forward should be to recognise the cultural and political situation in Afghanistan and realise that we will not create a democracy by bombing villages. We must accept more limited aims, work work with the local culture, not against it, and find a way forward that involves more humanitarian work and less bombing of civilians.
The Red One is a recent digital camera produced by the Red Digital Camera Company. The camera shots at greater than HD and at up to 120 frames per second, which allows the production of great slow-mo video.
As an example, here is a clip shot on the Red One.
“There were two reasons why these interrogations were so persistent, and why extreme methods were used,” the former senior intelligence official said on condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity.
“The main one is that everyone was worried about some kind of follow-up attack (after 9/11). But for most of 2002 and into 2003, Cheney and Rumsfeld, especially, were also demanding proof of the links between al Qaida and Iraq that (former Iraqi exile leader Ahmed) Chalabi and others had told them were there.” [...]”
I suppose it’s fitting, if disturbingly ironic, that techniques adopted wholesale from methods intended to extract false confessions were used in an attempt to generate evidence of a non-existent Al Qaeda-Saddam operational relationship.
It was in many respects also a self fulfilling process. The encouragement of torture to get evidence of terrorist links to Iraq created a torture culture in parts of the US military/intelligence complex. This lead to the Abu Ghraib scandals. In reading about the war in Iraq it is clear that at least some of the insurgency were motivated by these and other travesties inflicted by the US military.The ultimate effect of using torture to ‘prove’ terrorism in Iraq lead to terrorism in Iraq.
JG Ballard has just passed away. Described by the New York Times suchly: Ballard would eventually be deemed worthy of his own adjective, “Ballardian,” defined by the Collins English Dictionary as “resembling or suggestive of the conditions described in Ballard’s novels & stories, esp. dystopian modernity, bleak man-made landscapes & the psychological effects of technological, social or environmental developments.”
It is always difficult to get a sense of an author from a short passage, but this is from a short story, Voices of Time:
The dome was in darkness, all the windows shuttered, but the generator still hummed in the X-ray theatre. Kaldren stepped through the entrance and switched on the lights. In the theatre he touched the grilles of the generator, felt the warm cylinder of the beryllium end-window. The circular target table was revolving slowly, set at 1 r.p.m., a steel restraining chair shackled to it hastily. Grouped in a semi-cicle a few feet away were most of the tanks and cages, piled on top of each other haphazardly. In one of them was the enormous squid-like plant had almost managed to climb from it vivarium. Its long translucent tendrils clung to the end of the tank, but it body had burst into a jellified pool of globular mucilage. In another an enormous spider had trapped itself in its own web, hung helplessly in the centre of a huge three dimensional maze of phosphorescing thread, twitching spasmodically.
All the experimental plants and animals had died. The chimp lay on its back among the remains of the hutch, the helmet forward over its eyes. Kaldren watched it for a moment, then sat down on the desk and picked up the phone.
While he dialed the number he noticed a film reel lying on the blotter. For a moment, he stared at the label, then slid the reel into his pocket beside the tape.
After he had spoken to the police he turned down the lights and went out to the car, drove off slowly down the drive.
When he reached the summer house the early sunlight was breaking across the ribbon-like balconies and terraces. He took the lift to the penthouse, made his way through into the museum. One by one he opened the shutters and let the sunlight play over the exhibits. Then he pulled the a chair over to a side window, sat and stared up at the light pouring through into the room.
Two or three hours later he heard Coma outside, calling up to him. After half an hour she went away, but a little later a second voice appeared and shouted up at Kaldren. He left his chair and closed all the shutters overlooking the front courtyard, and eventually he was left undisturbed.
Kaldren returned to his seat and lay back quietly, his eyes gazing across the line of exhibits. Half asleep, periodically he leaned up and adjusted the flow of light through the shutter, thinking to himself, as he would do in the coming months of Powers and his strange mandala, and of the seven and their journey to the white gardens of the moon, and the blue people who had come from Orion and spoken in poetry to them of the ancient beautiful worlds beneath golden suns in the island of galaxies, vanished for ever now in the myriad deaths of the cosmos.
It seems like you cannot go past a TV show or movie at the moment that they do not have Apple computers lying around the place. I was watching 30 Rock just before and when they went to check some Puerto Rican website, they of course wandered over to Jack Donaghy’s computer which looked like a 24″ iMac:
This is of course the same computer that I use:
I have heard that even hardcore geeks are into macs because it is Unix based and thus is essentially a Unix computer with a nice GUI, so all the linux geeks get into them.
The news today reported on the rescue of an American merchant seaman who was being held by Somali pirates (see for example, this Washington Post article).
The interesting dimension in the Somali pirate story is that it is still occurring at this time after so many resources have been directed to the issue. Somali pirates have been operating of the coast of Somalia for some time, this is a prime location as there is a large traffic of cargo ships travelling past Somalia as they exit from the Suez Channel and relating ports around the Gulf.
Countries from around the world, developed and developing, have sent naval ships to the ocean off of Somali to counter the pirates, and while we will see occasional stories of triumph overall this naval surge does not appear to be that successful. It is not difficult to see why. The sea area around Somalia is vast, dotted with merchant ships travelling too and fro and also seething with Somali fishing vessels, some of which may contain pirates.
Arrayed against this are relatively few large industrial strength warships, primarily designed for high-intensity modern naval warfare. Some are armed with enough cruise missiles to level a Somali town, but perfectly useless for catching pirates.
And it has always been this way. When the United States had problems with Barbary pirates from North Africa capturing United States ships in the Mediterranean at the end of the 18th and beginning of the 19th centuries they launched two wars against the Barbary nations, landing and fighting in Tripoli and other North African ports (1801-1815).
The way to defeat pirates is to remove the safe havens they have on land, not to try and intercept them in the endless oceans.
The implications of this however, for the Somali situation are too terrible for many to contemplate. Somalia is a “failed state”, and one in which the United States intervened for humanitarian reasons, only to have the soldiers killed by warlords in desperate gun battles in the narrow streets of Mogidishu (see Black Hawk Down). Bill Clinton rapidly removed the American forces, and I doubt any President is likely to wish to go down that road again.
With the most effective response closed off, it will be interesting to see how affected nations adapt to the Somali pirate threat and if their military forces, and in particular their navies, are able to come up with a strategy the uses all their high-tech equipment to defeat a low tech opponent for which the were never designed to.
I am at the moment considering how to update, improve and focus this blog. At the moment I am looking at other technology and themes and expect to be able to put something in place soon.
The Government in Victoria has promulgated new water targets for Victorians of 155 litres per day.
I had no idea how much water this involves, but since I have made absolutely no effort to save water in any way I was interested to see how my water usage comes out. When I received my bill it turns out that I use 98 litres a day.
This is probably because I have no garden as I live in an apartment. I can now feel vindicated in my belief that I do not have to save water because in fact all the water is being used to water suburban gardens. This would tend to indicate that the solution is for the subsidies for water tanks to be hiked up even higher (although they are not very effective when it is not raining).
The interesting politics around the program is that a program like Target 155 is an imperfect substitute for other policy instruments, such as higher prices, enforced limits or shipping an iceberg from Antarctica. The problem with all those later programs is that they are things that the Government does to us. Target 155 is something we do for ourselves. This has the twin benefit of savings the government from having to make unpopular decisions, and make the ordinary citizen want to be a part of the program.
Mother Jones, a US magazine, has an article about life in America at $195 a week. This is the income earned by a staff member at Wal-Mart $10.50 an hour:
Edick’s monthly take-home pay—about $800 at the time I visited—doesn’t go far either. She lives in a tiny apartment with a broken stove and mostly empty fridge that barely works. Rent and utilities run about $450 a month; when it’s cold outside, she often sets the thermostat to 50 degrees to lower her bill. Gas and car insurance cost another $160 or so, depending on prices at the pump. And then there are the doctor visits, covered only after a $1,000 deductible—plus medicines for a thyroid problem, chronic anxiety, and osteoporosis.
To balance the budget, Edick often skimps on food, some weeks spending little more than $10 on groceries, about one-quarter what the federal food stamp program calculates is needed for three “thrifty meals” a day. She patronizes the grimy discount stores whose prices run even lower than Wal-Mart’s, and can tick off their notable sales going back for months.
Poverty can occur in any country, any society, and it one of the great tragedies of America that it is so wide spread there. Edick is not the lowest paid American, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics produces a report on the lowest pad workers in America, the top five by occupation are:
2,602,950 food preparation and serving workers paid $8.03 an hour
575,510 fast food cooks paid $8.11 an hour
509,550 dishwashers paid 8.20
541,370 counter attendants, cafeteria and coffee shop workers at $8.57 an hour
401,070 Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers $8.36 an hour
Poverty is a largely hidden tragedy in societies. It is largely addressable by governments and this is why it is a affliction that American could have cured. This is a society that has just spent $800b on conducted a completely unnecessary war in Iraq (and more on a largely unnecessary war in Afghanistan).
What should a country like America do? There are number of policies that would improve income distribution without much impact on the economy as a whole:
universal health care provided regardless of ability to pay
a progressive tax system include negative taxes for low income earners (ie a payment to low income earners)
a higher minimum wage (there is lots of debate in the economics field on the effect on minimum wages. A simple model of markets would suggest that raising the minimum wage will create unemployment, however the empirical evidence is quite mixed and there a strong arguments why it would not impact greatly on employment)
That wouldn’t solve poverty, but would go a long way.
I know I have posted on this in the past, but there are now available large high-res photos on the Chaiten volcano (with the lightening and what not) at the Big Picture website.
While on the topic I do recommend popping over to the Big Picture every now and then, they have some great news photography at a higher resolution than you will find elsewhere.
When waking this morning I turned on the radio to my favourite station, the ABC’s NewsRadio. The first two news reports I heard were about a small riot in a prison in Tunis and a Person getting sick on a cruise ship needing to be helicoptered to Tasmania.
Why these news reports? It is like they pick completely random events to report on. We hear no news reports about Tunis at any other time, and the events on cruise ships are not constant reporting items. But of course we know why these are reported - Fires! Prison riots! Medical Emergencies! Plane Crashes! Murder!
The “news” as we know it, is almost the opposite, not News but rather a random collection of factoids.
The BBC is “incredibly stupid” to devote so much resources to news-gathering. It should instead close down its radio and TV news operations for the UK, confining news to its website. I say this for six reasons:
1. TV especially is not the right medium for news. Stories are rarely illuminated by egomaniacs waving their arms. News is better suited to the web, which has the virtues of immediacy and flexibility; if pictures or sounds improve a story, the web can carry them, and if not, it can bin them. The web also better allows reporters to explain what’s going on, as Mark Easton’s and Robert Peston’s blogs demonstrate.
2. Reducing expensive news-gathering would release resources for better programming. News could be replaced by quality documentaries; an understanding of the Israeli-Gaza conflict would surely be better promoted by historical documentaries than necessarily partial reports of who’s lobbing bombs at whom.
For Australia this could be a useful proposal, the ABC could close down its large and expensive news operations, stop reporting on prison riots in Tunis and spend the money on useful and meaningful programming for Australia.
The Duchess came out last year and the plot of the movie seemed to be about some young lady in the 18th century who wears nice frocks and marries some member of the landed gentry and gets upset because she is meant to have babies and he is in charge.
A female friend found all this quite moving, and I must admit I found, not so much the movie itself (which I have no intention of seeing), but rather the reaction to it a bit annoying.
I couldn’t really pin down my basis of my feelings until I saw an article in the Washington Post: Michael Dirda on ‘Mrs. Woolf and the Servants’. A room of one’s own — and someone to clean it. The book examines the relationship between Virginia Woolfe and her servant. Yes she had a number of female servants. Woolfe was a feminist for herself but happy to receive servitude from her fellow women.
!8th century society was established on class based oppression. The life of some frocked minor royal was irrelevant in that system of oppression. In fact she was far, far better off than most; due to her wealth. If she really cared about oppression she would have been campaigning for the working class poor and not for herself on minor issue (gee, her husband had a mistress, how terrible for her, as she sits in her silk gown eating strawberries).
I had this album floating around for a while before listening to it and I have found it quite enjoyable, it reminds me of the shoegazing music of the early nineties.
Interestingly enough, the band is Melbourne based, which I didn’t realise when listening to them (which may explain why there were not a lot of clips on youtube). Anyway, try this on for size: